Model guidance and the synoptic flow over the next 5-10 days tells me we are likely to see development of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico that may very well lead to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Model guidance then depicts this tropical cyclone to hug the Eastern Seaboard up through the Mid-Atlantic before jogging off out to sea.
The pattern across the Atlantic will be stagnant, with high pressure spread out across the waters. This will enable any potential tropical formation to stick close to the coastline and stay in the Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico. It looks like that set-up will enable that principle to work itself into the first 10 days of June, when we expect tropical development to occur in the Gulf of Mexico and pose a threat to land. The most common landfall area has been northern Florida, and solutions that have taken that landfall path have then taken the remnants of the tropical cyclone up the Eastern Seaboard.
Model uncertainty remains high at this point, and the tropical cyclone may not even form when it comes down to it. However, if one does form in the Gulf, these are the areas I would expect to be affected.
On another note, what would you think about me using a grid-type of graphic like the one pictured below? This is a prototype and will be changed, but what are your thoughts on it? Like or dislike?
|Yellow: Threat of tropical cyclone effects|
Red: Threat of tropical cyclone landfall