Let's go back to the winter storm we just had across the Plains and Midwest. If you recall, the concern in the days leading up to the forecast was that it would reach a negative tilt too quickly, and would then occlude (or weaken) as it progressed northeast towards the Midwest. This did end up happening, and the Plains got the brunt of the storm. This was thanks in part to how early the storm attained a negative tilt. By the time it was exiting the Rockies, it already had developed a negative tilt. However, looking at the forecast above, we see it is holding on a neutral tilt- a good sign for those east of the Plains as far as snow potential goes. Another thing relating to this recent storm is where it exited the Rockies. I did mention in a recent post how it would be exiting the mountains in southeast Colorado. This is further north than what is being shown above. The European ensemble's forecasted south placement of this storm system relative to the previous storm is more good news for folk in the Midwest and Great Lakes that may be affected by this system.
Confidence checks (out of 100%)
Confidence that a significant winter storm will hit the Plains and/or Midwest: 85% confidence
Confidence that over a foot of snow will hit somewhere in the Midwest: 40% confidence
Confidence that a major icing event will occur somewhere with this storm: 90% confidence
Confidence that a snow day will be called for someone in this storm: 90% confidence
Comments are welcome, please don't ask for your location's snow or snow day chance. You will not get an answer, because we are too far away from the event.