Friday, May 31, 2013

Tornado Emergency - Moore, Oklahoma - May 31, 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 705 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED STRONG TORNADO ONE MILE SOUTH
OF THE FAIRGROUNDS. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

..THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...INCLUDING
THE FAIRGROUNDS...WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT...THE CAPITOL...VALLEY BROOK
...NORTH MOORE...AND DEL CITY...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...BETHANY...WARR ACRES...NICHOLS
HILLS...FOREST PARK...VALLEY BROOK AND LAKE ALUMA.

Tornado Headed for Downtown Oklahoma City

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 705 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED STRONG TORNADO ONE MILE SOUTH
OF THE FAIRGROUNDS. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

..THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...INCLUDING
THE FAIRGROUNDS...WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT...THE CAPITOL...VALLEY BROOK
...NORTH MOORE...AND DEL CITY...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...BETHANY...WARR ACRES...NICHOLS
HILLS...FOREST PARK...VALLEY BROOK AND LAKE ALUMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. THEY WILL NOT
PROTECT YOU FROM A TORNADO.

THE TORNADO MAY BE HIDDEN BY RAIN AND VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

Tornado Emergency - Oklahoma City Metro - May 31, 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT
    
* AT 651 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG
  DAMAGING TORNADOES WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BETHANY. A TORNADO 
  MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR WILEY POST AIRPORT...WILL ROGERS WORLD
AIRPORT...BETHANY...DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...AND NORTH MOORE...TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS NOW.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...WARR
  ACRES...NICHOLS HILLS...FOREST PARK...VALLEY BROOK AND LAKE ALUMA.

Tornado Emergency- Oklahoma City, OK - May 31, 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
   
* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
  SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL RENO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR YUKON...RICHLAND...WILEY POST
AIRPORT...BETHANY...AND THE VILLAGE...TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS NOW.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EL RENO...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...WARR ACRES AND RICHLAND.

Tornado on Ground - West of Oklahoma City - May 31, 2013


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKC017-051-010000-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-130601T0000Z/
GRADY OK-CANADIAN OK-
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GRADY AND CENTRAL CANADIAN COUNTIES...
   
AT 614 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNION CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO...YUKON...MUSTANG AND UNION CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
STURDY BUILDING NOW.


Radar images of a tornado on the ground west of Oklahoma City. OKC and Moore are threatened.

Potentially Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch - May 31, 2013

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   330 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
       GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...

   DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
   IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG A WEAK
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK.  DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES
   ARE POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
   THROUGH THE EVENING.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.

East Coast, Gulf Coast Now At Risk for Tropical Cyclone

It now appears that the Gulf Coast AND East Coast are at risk of being threatened by a tropical cyclone, as model guidance has come into agreement still a while out.

The ECMWF model has been rather consistent with its idea of holding high pressure over the Atlantic to provide a favorable environment for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Over the last few runs, this model has developed a tropical cyclone and had it landfall on the Gulf Coast. Its most recent forecast has a tropical cyclone shooting into Florida on June 7th, as the image above indicates. Considering the consistency of this forecast and agreement with other modeling systems I would not be surprised to see any of the Gulf Coast states affected. As of right now, states from Louisiana to Florida are at the higher risk of a landfalling tropical cyclone.

Moving ahead into June 9th, we find that the tropical cyclone has moved through Florida and is harassing the coastline north of Florida. Moving forward into this model run the ECMWF continues to push the tropical cyclone closer to shore in response to stagnant high pressure to the southeast of the Canadian Maritimes. This is actually a pretty plausible solution- if a tropical cyclone does form and is able to make landfall in Florida, the synoptic pattern would favor the tropical system being pushed more towards land- exactly how close to the Eastern Seaboard is the main question here.

Multiple GFS Ensemble members agree with the idea of tropical cyclone formation and landfall on the Gulf Coast. From there, these same members tend to agree with the cyclone affecting the East Coast after pushing through Florida. When a model solution gets the backing of ensembles, the solution tends to be a rather plausible one. We're still a long ways out, but I feel that this situation needs to be monitored closely in coming days.

Andrew

Violent Tornadoes Possible Tonight for Oklahoma

NOTE: High Risk was not issued, but may be issued later on.
Violent tornadoes are possible this evening for Oklahoma, as the worst day of this multi-day severe weather outbreak may be about to unfold across the state.

Latest mesoscale discussion from the Storm Prediction Center over the central Oklahoma region indicated a Potentially Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch will be issued in the next couple of hours in response to a very favorable environment for tornadoes in the area. At the present time, the region is also being monitored for an upgrade by the SPC from a Moderate Risk of severe weather to the rare High Risk of severe weather. High Risk situations are issued when severe weather is at its worst; some events associated with High Risk situations include the Tuscaloosa event in April 2011.

Violent tornadoes are on the menu for that region this evening; depending on how the PDS Tornado Watch is issued, we may see the chance for multiple strong tornadoes or the chance for one or two. Regardless, it is important that anyone in Oklahoma understand that there is a very real risk for life-threatening tornadoes. The synoptic environment is supportive for tornadoes that MAY (no guarantees whatsoever here) be similar to the Moore, OK tornado. This similarity is not in damage or path, but in how the environment may be favoring tornadoes on the higher end of the tornado scale.

A Critical Storm Action Day (CDAS) is now in effect.

Andrew

Thursday, May 30, 2013

ECMWF Develops Tropical Cyclone; Gulf Coast Threatened

The ECMWF model has developed a landfalling tropical cyclone for June 9th, as an active on-land weather pattern begins to ignite the tropics.

The map above shows the 10 day forecast from the ECMWF model, with mean sea level pressure values in the black contour lines and vorticity values in colors. The tropical cyclone is observed here making landfall into eastern Louisiana, close to Mississippi. This comes as the weather pattern favors stagnant high pressure in the Central and Eastern US, leading to a favorable tropical pattern. I have been indicating that the weather pattern may favor a tropical cyclone in the first 10 days of June, and the models appear to be catching on.

This event is still ten days out and loaded with uncertainty. Due to the shaky agreement between the ECMWF and GFS model systems I am fairly certain that there is potential here. I am not willing to elaborate on who could get hit and how strong the cyclone could be; it's too far out to even make an educated guess. As of right now, the whole Gulf Coast could be affected.

Andrew

Friday May Hold a Substantial Tornado Threat in Midwest

Although the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined it in their graphic (it was mentioned in today's discussion), Friday may hold more potential for a severe weather event than it is currently being portrayed as.

This image, from the Storm Prediction Center's short range ensemble SREF system, shows the forecast for 'Significant Tornado Ingredients' for the evening hours on Friday. While the title of this may seem ominous, I take it to be an indication of if the ingredients needed to produce a tornado are in place. It does *not* mean that a significant tornado will be produced, although areas in the higher regions of this index should be on the lookout for any tornadic activity. In this forecast, we see a large swath of values, beginning with 5 in the dashed line and up to 60 in the center of the swath. Personally (although I haven't used this index in a while), I would advise that those outside of the 15 on the chart above should be relatively safe, while anyone inside the 30 should make sure their emergency plan is at the ready. Between those two benchmarks is iffy as far as how much potential you have- play it safe and keep an eye on weather developments as you go through your day on Friday.

It is true what the SPC SREF is saying in the image above- there is an unusually high value of 60 in the Midwest (of all places). And the bad thing is, that 60 is not unwarranted. Recent model runs of other forecasting systems have told of even a potential tornado outbreak for Friday evening in the Midwest. Current model projections from the GFS have an unusually strong jet stream over the Plains and Midwest for this timeframe, with speeds encroaching on 100 knots. Considering we have a strong Pacific jet backing this synoptic pattern up, it was inevitable that the jet stream would come onshore at some point. On the lower level wind field, the lower level jet stream will be dominating, with wind speeds exceeding 50 knots in the areas most at risk in the SPC SREF graphic at the top of this post. Wind shearing between the surface and mid-level atmosphere was observed to be over 90 knots at one point on the NAM model, although for sanity sake we'll take the GFS projection of maxing out at 70 knots to the west of the most at-risk area in the Midwest. Instability appears to be the holding point for the Storm Prediction Center as far as an upgrade to Moderate Risk for the region goes, but analysis of multiple model runs tells me we should not have a problem with instability. That said, I'm not a forecaster at the SPC and cannot predict if they really will issue a Moderate Risk once instability issues have been resolved.

The Plains will also be at a heightened risk yet again on Friday, with the supercell composite forecast reaching to levels seen at the Moore, OK tornado event. However, it is very much worth noting that the Significant Tornado Ingredients image above does not extend its high values into Oklahoma, meaning the tornado threat for that area could be substantially lower than that of recent days. It is for that reason that this post was mainly dedicated to the Midwest, and its increasing potential for a very active evening on Friday.

Andrew

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Florida Landfall Possible to Open Atlantic Hurricane Season

It looks like the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2013 is going to get going in the next couple of weeks, as model guidance has begun to push for a tropical cyclone forming in the first week of June, possibly affecting the United States as a result.

We have begun a push into a new weather pattern in the last several days; one that is likely to bring not only additional severe weather events, but additional likelihoods of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. The short range mid-level forecast chart shown above depicts the pattern of West US troughing of low pressure and Northeast US ridging of high pressure that we will be in for at least the next week or two. During this time, it is very possible we will see our first tropical development in the Caribbean basin.

Model guidance has been projecting a weak tropical cyclone to hit Florida in the first week of June, and this guidance has been telling of this projection for multiple days now. The strength of this tropical cyclone has varied in both timeframe and strength, but the general idea of a tropical threat in the first 10 days of June has remained nearly steadfast. Included in this suite of tropical development-allowing model guidance is the European ensemble set and the GFS model, which has been the most prevalent in calling for a tropical cyclone hitting the western Florida coast. The GFS tells of a cyclone that could drop over 2 inches of rain in a 60 hour period over much of Florida. This does not seem like much, but then again you must remember we are a good 10 days out from the first potential shot at this cyclone's formation.

What tells me there is potential for cyclone formation is just how the upcoming weather pattern will match up with the ideal scenario graphic from Penn State University above. In the above graphic, you see high pressure dominating the Atlantic in an action that forces tropical cyclones to move through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico basins rather than shoot out to sea. This pattern also enables the chance of a landfalling tropical cyclone to rise significantly. If the projected atmospheric pattern currently in model guidance verifies, we would likely be seeing an eastern Gulf Coast tropical cyclone threat in the first 2 weeks of June.

Andrew

Southern Plains Threatened Again on Wednesday

For at least the third time in at least a week, the Southern Plains will be threatened by an unusually high risk of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather in accordance with this heightened risk.

A storm system will begin to reach a negative tilt going into Wednesday, indicating that the highest mid-level vorticity values associated with this storm will be pointed towards the southeast. As a result, the storm system will strengthen and amplify the pattern that this severe weather risk will be in. Strong jet stream divergence to the immediate east of the moderate risk area, as well as a strengthening lower level jet stream will lead to an atmospheric wind field that favors severe weather.

Projected radar reflectivities for Wednesday evening

Projected updraft helicity for Wednesday evening
A special convective WRF model that was run earlier today is indicating that a tornadic environment will share the stage with a damaging wind-style convective cluster. You can see the intense thunderstorm formation over the Plains for Wednesday evening on the top image, and these storms are split into two categories. The first involves the linear thunderstorms spread from central Nebraska down to the border of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The second type of storms is the individual cells in Oklahoma. While one would expect the individual cells to have more potential than the linear system, it looks like the strongest helicity values will be placed inside the linear storm cells.

Regardless of where the highest helicity values end up, anyone inside the moderate risk area should be watchful for the potential of tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

Andrew

Monday, May 27, 2013

Tornadoes, Large Hail Possible in Kansas This Memorial Day


There is potential for severe thunderstorms and multiple tornadoes across portions of the Plains on this Memorial Day 2013.

Development of showers and thunderstorms is expected as we move into the evening as a result of low pressure beginning to evacuate the West Coast in favor of the Plains area. The Northern Plains should encounter a slightly less active environment when compared to northern Texas, and this is shown by the Tornado Potential shading being placed more towards the central and southern Plains at this time. I expect storms in the red shading to be strong to severe, although a full-on outbreak is not anticipated at this time. Those in the shaded red region should be alert for strong winds, hail and an isolated tornado.

Convective WRF model projects the development of supercellular storms in central Kansas, and my Tornado Potential region was shifted to account for this prediction. Lower level jet stream is expected to strengthen in speed and size over this region, and at least substantial instability will add to what could be a tornadic equation. I expect any potential tornadoes to affect central and north Kansas into northeast Kansas rather than the whole state.

I used a statewide map to illustrate my primary areas of concern. A north-to-south line from Logan to Coldwater, and northeast-ward line from Bluff City to Mound City will contain the area I believe is at risk for supercell formation. I don't think it's a good idea to project tornado potential, but using the parameters I have at the moment, I have a good idea of where we can expect supercell formation later this evening.

Andrew

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Tropical Discussion - Development, Landfall Possible in Mexico

Invest 92 has formed in the East Pacific, and the National Hurricane Center has identified this invest with a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates this invest is rather healthy, with multiple areas of enhanced thunderstorms to the south of Mexico. Some of these thunderstorms are even spreading onshore, and this could be a sign of where the invest will eventually end up. For now, no significant circulation is detected by satellite feed, although continued development and dissipation of thunderstorms is clearly shown. If any development is to occur, it would likely start with the southern thunderstorm complex, where storm development is most stable.



Model guidance is showing my main concern with this invest, as current projections have the tropical invest moving almost due northward into Mexico. The consensus is certainly for a landfall into Mexico, although the model spread going towards Mexico is enough so that I am not willing to formally declare a landfall is likely. I do believe, however, that there is a pretty good chance we will see cyclone development and landfall. I say cyclone development because the intensity forecast image below the tracks shows all guidance agreeing in Invest 92 strengthening into a tropical cyclone. A few models even go to bare-bones Category 1 hurricane status, but I believe we will cross that bridge when we get to it.

RISKS
Tropical Cyclone Development: LIKELY
Tropical Storm: LIKELY
Hurricane: POSSIBLE
Major Hurricane: UNLIKELY
Landfall: LIKELY

Andrew

Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreak Possible

I believe a multi-day severe weather outbreak is possible (if not likely) across the Plains and Midwest over the next 7 days.

The pattern really is primed for such a multi-day event. It begins with an unusually active upper air flow. The image above shows the projected upper air field for five days out. We see an unusually strong Pacific jet screaming into the West Coat above 130 knots at some points. This active Pacific jet will lead to a more active pattern in general for the United States, and will enhance potentials for severe weather.

As the Pacific jet stream amplifies, we will see a more meridional flow set up. If you don't recall, meridional flow is when the jet stream is very wavy and not in a straight line. We are expecting that type of upper air flow in the coming week. As this happens, a general low pressure trend in the West Coast should set up, leading to massive high pressure formation in the Central and East US. This type of synoptic set-up would not be all that different from the pattern that was present for the Moore, OK tornado event. Now, we can't predict if we will see EF-5 tornadoes, because it is practically impossible to predict tornadoes at any given time, unless you're predicting them as they happen.

For this particular multi-day event this week (the days themselves remain uncertain), multiple low pressure systems will be making their way onshore from the active Pacific storm train. A major difference we expect to see between the Oklahoma tornadoes and this upcoming week's potential is that the storms should be further north. I anticipate the Central and Northern Plains to get in on the action more-so than the Southern Plains.

One thing that is very concerning is what the CIPS analog system is putting out. This map combines storm reports from 15 of the best analog dates (dates that have similar atmospheric features as a forecast period (in this case, 5 days away)) into one image. Looking at this image, it is apparent that this potential outbreak would most likely affect states from Minnesota into Oklahoma, but with eastern Nebraska into western Iowa and western Missouri into much of Kansas receiving the highest threat. Note that many of the tornado reports you see in red on the image above included F5 and F4 tornadoes, as this post from AmericanWx shows.

I don't really want to make a map for this week's potential, because I find it to be entering this post with a little too much uncertainty. However,

Andrew

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Notice

I've been taking a few days to recharge, and am out and about this Memorial Day weekend. 

While this may have been an inconvenience for some of you, I plan to make up this absence by posting multiple articles Monday and Tuesday, one of which could be related to the upcoming winter (hint hint).

Andrew 

Monday, May 20, 2013

Real-Time Updates - Moore, Oklahoma Tornado Damage


5:07 PM
-All kids at Briarwood are reported to be accounted for.

5:03 PM
-3 fatalities confirmed near a 7-11 in Moore.
-Updates are finished for the next 20 minutes.

4:57 PM
-Multiple severe injuries are being reported.
-Those in/near Moore not associated with rescue efforts are being asked to leave the area to help rescue efforts.

4:50 PM
-Reports that a 3 month old baby and 4 year old child are deceased.

4:46 PM
-Reportedly 75 children in Plaza Towers elementary school when the tornado struck.

4:44 PM
-15 children reportedly trapped in Plaza Towers school.
-No confirmed fatalities from this school.
-Police scanner has multiple fatalities from unknown locations.

Damage from Moore, Oklahoma Tornado - May 20, 2013

Images from KFOR.













Sunday, May 19, 2013

Damage from Shawnee, OK Tornado - May 19, 2013

These images are from KFOR.








Extremely Dangerous Tornado - Fallis, OK - May 19


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL LINCOLN AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO LOCATED NEAR LUTHER...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...PING PONG BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLSTON AND LUTHER.

Tornado Emergency - Wichita, KS - May 19





SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSC173-192115-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130519T2115Z/
SEDGWICK KS-
337 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SEDGWICK COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 336 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND
VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING
DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO
BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN WICHITA...HAYSVILLE...WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...WEST
WICHITA...SOUTH WICHITA...MAIZE...MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...EAST
WICHITA...NORTHEAST WICHITA...OAKLAWN...BEL AIRE AND JABARA AIRPORT.