Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Large Tornado On Ground- Benjamin, Texas

539
WFUS54 KOUN 302342
TOROUN
TXC275-310030-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0051.120530T2342Z-120531T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 637 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRUSCOTT. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RESIDENTS NEAR TRUSCOTT AND NORTH OF BENJAMIN
SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENJAMIN...GILLILAND AND TRUSCOTT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE TORNADO WILL BE HIDDEN BY RAIN AND YOU MAY NOT SEE IT. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 9990 3384 9985 3382 9982 3382 9976
3368 9953 3351 9990 3382 10000 3384 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 327DEG 16KT 3384 9993

Baseball Size Hail, 80 MPH Winds, Tornado Possible in Paducah, TX Cell

Baseball Size hail, damaging winds above 80 MPH, and a tornado are possible with the cell east of Paducah, Texas.

Multi-Vortex Tornadoes May Be In Progress

Several tight vortexes on radar imagery are showing me that the Paducah, TX cell could have multiple tornadoes associated with it.

Lie updates on the Facebook page.

Extreme Hail May Be Falling East of Paducah, TX

The image below shows VIL, which in very high values, indicates large hail is likely falling.

Live updates on the Facebook page

May 30 2012: Storm Action Day Declared

A Storm Action Day has been declared due to the likelihood of severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains.

Storm Prediction Center Public Outlook ("Significant" Thunderstorms , "Very Dangerous" Situation)

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 300919
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-301800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND NORTHERN TEXAS...

AN UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM
EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...THE MERGING OF A COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT OVER
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS...TO PRODUCE A NUMBER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. WITH TIME...INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO
A LARGE COMPLEX WITH A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..MEAD.. 05/30/2012

$$

Tornadoes, Hail are Big Threats Today for Plains

Overall Risk of Severe Weather

Risk of Hail

Risk of tornadoes

Risk of damaging winds
There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms as outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for the Southern Plains today. The risk does appear to stem from a tornado and hail threat, more so on the hail threat.

A low pressure system will be stationed in northern Texas, with an occluded front stretching horizontally from central Oklahoma through the Carolinas. As the low pressure center approaches the moderate risk area, a dryline will come out just ahead of the low pressure system. At this point, the front is separating cold and warm air, and the dry line is separating dry and humid air. That makes 2 boundaries separating all types of air masses. Needless to say, that will spark a severe weather event.
The proximity of the front and dry line to the low pressure system lead me to believe that any storms that form may be influenced by the low pressure system's wind field, thus possibly enhancing the risk for tornadoes.

Valid 8:00 PM CDT
At 4:00 PM CDT, a member of the WRF ensembles begins initiation of showers and storms in western Oklahoma. At 5:00 PM CDT, it is evident that these showers and storms may be taking on supercell characteristics, and by 8:00 PM CDT, the storms have merged into a bowing segment or multi-cellular segment. A multi-cell cluster would enhance a hail risk while a bowing segment would enhance wind risk, so this may be a multi-cell cluster.
I used this graphic after comparing its forecasts for now to what was actually happening now, as this ensemble member ran at 0z.

Chase Spot: Weatherford, Oklahoma

Andrew