Tuesday, August 2, 2011

August 2: TS Emily has blow-up, Most Convection to North and East

We have seen that Emily's cold cloud tops have increased, indicating possible strengthening or intensity. Anyways, convection remains more to the north and east, along with the strongest winds, measured around 30-40 knots.

August 2: Very Strong Storms Expected in N. Illinois

Supercell Composite. Higher values are dangerous.

MUCAPE. Higher values above 2000 are extremely dangerous.

Derecho Composite. Higher numbers indicate higher likelihood of a derecho.

EHI- spinning and energy in the atmosphere. High values are dangerous.

Lifted Index. Lower values are more unstable.
All of the above parameters are severe weather parameters. As we can see, South WI into Illinois are very dangerous atmosphere conditions.
Out in west IL, we see the storms are beginning to develop.
We will keep you up to date on all of this information.

August 2: TS Emily 5:00 CDT PM Update, Uncertainty Grows

Uncertainty is growing in this 5:00 PM CDT Update. We have gone through some things not seen in previous updates that has dramatically changed our way of thinking.
Emily seems to have built herself up to at least a moderate standpoint. While the apparent center of Emily is looking somewhat messy, she is now able to be seen as a tropical system on infrared imagery.
The official NHC track now calls for Emily to weaken to tropical depression status as she crosses the Haiti region. Haiti will certainly be in big trouble as Emily crosses over. Tropical Storm warnings have been hoisted for that area, as well as islands to the east. After weakening in Haiti, Emily will regain composure and just miss the East Coast.
Finally, spaghetti plots indicate the consensus is now more easterly, with the GFS/ECMWF reportedly dissipating Emily as she moves in the direction according to the NHC.
Because of all this new information, it has been decided that Emily now has a smaller chance of hitting Florida and areas westward. Instead, Florida could now experience high waves as Emily is supposedly slingshotted out into the Atlantic.

August 2: Major Update for 5:00 PM CDT Emily Update

There will be major changes for what we think Emily will do in our 5:00 PM update.
It's so big that we're starting work on it right now.

August 2: TS Emily Back On Track, 2PM Update.

From The NHC:


..EMILY BACK ON TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST.  EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT 12
MPH...19 KM/H.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...70
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


Tropical Storm Emily has resumed her track westward at about 12 MPH. It appears Emily has slightly strengthened, with winds now at 45 MPH.
We will have much more for you in our 5:00 update.

Breaking News: August 2: TS Emily Hesitates, Stops Forward Motion


...EMILY HESITATES...IT COULD BE REORGANIZING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST.  EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 12 MPH...19 KM/H...LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WAS REPORTED ON
ST. THOMAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

Emily has been noted as becoming stationary and not moving westward anymore. This could be a sign that Emily could be reorganizing, or could resume movement to the NNE.
Either way, this development appears to increase the chance of Emily moving more NNE in the face of my earlier predictions.

August 2 Severe Weather Discussion

SYNOPSIS... Cold front will dive southward across Lower Great Lakes and Midwest. Sufficient shearing from S. WI to N. IL and eastward indicating tornado threat on the table. Damaging wind threat also elevated in those areas.

Discussion... A cold front will enter the Lower GL region and Midwest to ignite showers and storms. There is sufficient shearing in place in the S. WI/N. IL Eastward, so isolated tornadoes are possible in the more intense storms. Storms will develop this afternoon, and the tornado threat will evolve mostly in Wisconsin, but also in areas previously mentioned.
ATTM... Surface Based and MUCAPE parameters are in the 3000 j/kg range, with a slight to moderate region of CINH in portions of the slight risk area. Already.. Supercell Composites are considerably elevated in Wisconsin, mostly in western portions of the state. EHI's are elevated/somewhat high in West WI through IA and into parts of MO.

August 2: TS Emily Located Farther West, Possible Storm Tracks Chart Released

Tropical Storm Emily is currently in the Caribbean islands moving west. The farther Emily moves west instead of Northwest will push the track farther to the left. As of right now, though, it remains close to shore of Florida.
Earlier this morning, an attempt to locate Emily's center was found to be far west, introducing more potential of Emily striking the US. However, in the latest test, the center was found to be in the region of main convection in Emily.
The Weather Centre has produced 3 possible tracks Emily could take. Be warned that these are rough interpretations of what could happen, and these will not be exact results.
One option has Emily going into the Gulf of Mexico, where she could strengthen exponentially (in the best case scenario) and strike the US. Another possibility is what the NHC is projecting at this time. This one is not as favored as Emily continues to move more westerly. Finally, the green track was thrown in there to account for the odd GFS runs that have been observed, The black arrow is where Emily will go/ where she is.