Wednesday, July 27, 2011

The Weather Centre will be going offline

We will be going offline starting at 10:50 PM CDT because of approaching storms.

July 27: StormTrack: Dangerous Chicago Storms

From The Weather Centre's Mobile Storm Track Team (MSTT)--

Red area in image above is cone of where the dangerous storms could go. We at the MSTT believe these storms will maintain their current strength, although there is a small possibility of weakening. However, these possibilities change by every minute.

We predict these storms to reach Chicago by 12:00 AM CDT.

These storms have exhibited 70-80 MPH wind gusts in Winnebago, IL and Rockford, IL.

July 27: Tornado Warning (Indicated Tornado)- Mount Carroll, IL


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 936 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR
MISSISSIPPI PALISADES...OR 11 MILES WEST OF MOUNT CARROLL...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  SAVANNA AROUND 945 PM CDT...
  CENTER HILL AND WACKER AROUND 955 PM CDT...
  MOUNT CARROLL...ARGO FAY...8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHADWICK AND 8
  MILES WEST OF LANARK AROUND 1000 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

July 27: Tornado Warning (Possible Tornado)- La Motte, IA



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 840 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
NEAR LA MOTTE...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  COTTONVILLE AROUND 855 PM CDT...
  BELLEVUE...SMITHS AND SPRINGBROOK AROUND 915 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

July 27: Tornado Warning (Wall Cloud)- Bellevue, IA


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
  SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 823 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  FUNNEL OR WALL CLOUD WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR ZWINGLE ...OR
  14 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE...  MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  ZWINGLE AND OTTER CREEK THROUGH 840 PM CDT...
  LA MOTTE AROUND 850 PM CDT...
  COTTONVILLE AROUND 855 PM CDT...
  BELLEVUE...SPRINGBROOK AND SMITHS AROUND 915 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

July 27: Tornado Warning (Possible Tornado)- Freeport, IL


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
  NORTHERN STEPHENSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES NORTH OF STOCKTON...OR 19 MILES WEST OF
  FREEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  KENT AROUND 755 PM CDT...
  WADDAMS GROVE AROUND 800 PM CDT...
  LAKE LEAQUANA STATE PARK AND LENA AROUND 805 PM CDT...
  ELEROY AND WINSLOW AROUND 815 PM CDT...
  MC CONNELL AROUND 820 PM CDT...
  BUENA VISTA...RED OAK AND DAMASCUS AROUND 825 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

July 27: Tornado Watch #694 (N. IL, E. IA) (Until 1 AM CDT)


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 694
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   745 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EAST CENTRAL IOWA
          NORTHERN ILLINOIS
          EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA
          EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
          LAKE MICHIGAN
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
   UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   DUBUQUE IOWA TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS...SOME WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
   NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH DEVELOPING
   STORMS ON THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE
   CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN STRONGER COLD POOL GENERATION AND AN
   ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.

July 27: Tornado Warning (Possible Tornado)- Near Dubuque, IA


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
  SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
  JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR DUBUQUE REGIONAL AIRPORT...OR 8 MILES
  SOUTH OF DUBUQUE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  ANOTHER STORM WITH A
  POSSIBLE TORNADO IS 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALENA...ALSO MOVING EAST
  AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  MASSEY AROUND 740 PM CDT...
  ST. DONATUS AROUND 745 PM CDT...
  GALENA...AIKEN...RICE AND SMITHS THROUGH 800 PM CDT...
  GALENA TERRITORY AND RODDEN THROUGH 810 PM CDT...
  GUILFORD THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

July 27: Storm Initiation Detected

From The Weather Centre's MSTT-
Storm initiation has been detected in the Dubuque, IA area.
The HRRR model is evolving this system very well as of right now. That model projects a linear cluster of potential supercells to form from Dubuque into South WI, which will then move south and intercept North IL at around 11 PM CDT.

Tropical Storm DON Bulletin 1- July 27




...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. 
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
APPROACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

July 27 Severe Weather Bulletin

Severe weather parameters are skyrocketing.
CAPE values are now DOUBLE what they were forecast to be in the slight risk area today.
Due to the potential severity of these storms and that The Weather Centre's headquarters is in the path of these storms, The Weather Centre may cease posting and all communications with this blog at some point should we be affected by severe weather.

July 27 Severe Weather Discussion


See the bottom of the post for a summary.
Discussion... Front lifting slowly northward will continue to slow down or come to a halt in the North IL/South WI area out west through Iowa. Storms will initiate tonight along that front. These storms will be heavy rain producers, and flash flood watches have been posted for South WI and portions of North IL. The same goes for a small portion of NE Iowa.  As these thunderstorms initiate, the SPC believes these storms could have tornado potential. The storms could have a supercell twist, with energy so high. As a matter of fact, the latest SPC discussion laid out indicated that CAPE values are 1000-2000 j/kg HIGHER than expected. This means a larger threat for severe weather on a fairly larger scale. There are some issues, though. Warming is beginning to develop aloft, which would suppress storms. There is weak large scale forcing in the area, and heights are rising slowly. That said, there is certainly a threat for severe thunderstorms, but there are issues in the process of initiating them.
Timing of these storms is crucial. The Rapid Refresh Model is indicating the storms beginning at 7 PM CDT of earlier, with impact time at 7-8 PM CDT.
The RUC model projects the storms to fire around 6 PM CDT, and impact the region throughout at least 1 AM CDT.

Summary:
-Storms will likely be severe in many aspects if they are to develop.
-It appears storms will begin to fire from 4-8 PM CDT, and impact the regions from 7 pm CDT onwards through the night.

Update on Weather Models Page

We have taken down the new page to begin edits on it.
We have also begun adding a few of many many links that will be present on the new models page.
The release date deadline for the new page remains at January 1, 2012 or before.

July 27- Noon Atlantic Model Review


On the bottom we have 'dynamical models', which are sophisticated models run on supercomputers. We see the favored consensus is a landfall into Texas. A couple models actually fire the storm into Houston as a direct hit.
The top image is more simple models, which are not run on supercomputers. They prefer a track more into Mexico.
As of right now, I would prefer the dynamical models because they are run on the supercomputers and probably have some more reasoning behind their decision at this point.

July 27- Noon Atlantic Tropical Discussion


1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

July 27: Tornado Warning (Waterspout)- New Orleans


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EAST NEW ORLEANS...
  WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1248 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NORTH OF VIOLET
OVER THE MARSHES...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

July 27- Morning Atlantic Tropics Discussion


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

July 27- Elevated Morning Thunderstorms- Chicago, IL

Discussion... Elevated thunderstorm cluster is ongoing in Wisconsin northward, with a strong cell reaching down into far North Illinois. Out west, we see another line of storms developing and heading anywhere from ENE to NNE.
CINH is not in the picture, and instead MUCAPE of 2000 j/kg is in the areas above mentioned. Parameters like the EHI, Derecho Composite, Supercell Composite aren't impressive in the area of these storms.
These storms will affect the area currently seen above before another round starts up. This new round could be more elevated and possibly strong.