Thursday, January 6, 2011

Midwest/ East Coast Storm Update 1/6/11 evening

MIDWEST STORM MODEL OUTPUTS
(results compared to morning run.)

ECMWF- A tad farther south.
NOGAPS- Takes ECMWF track.
CMC- Keeping with morning track of going north.
DGEX- Similar CMC track.
UKMET- Early indications of ECMWF track.
GFS- ECMWF Track.
GFS Ensemble- 8/12 members showing north track, not CMC track.
WRF- Gulf Track, ECMWF.

Will take a combination of ECMWF/GFS Ensemble track. Will keep error room in case of change.

EAST COAST STORM MODEL OUTPUTS

ECMWF- Developed Nor 'easter, offshore, not much effect.
NOGAPS- ECMWF track.
CMC- Developed Nor 'easter, shore-hugger.
DGEX- Developed Nor 'easter, ECMWF Track.
UKMET- Too far out in time frame.
GFS Ensemble- 6/12 members predicting NO EAST COAST STORM.
GFS- Out to sea.

Dismiss GFS solution. Will take ECMWF/CMC track.

Midwest/ East Coast Storm Update 1/6/11 morning

MIDWEST MODEL OUTPUTS

ECMWF- Shifted slightly north overnight.
GFS- A bit more southerly than the ECMWF.
NOGAPS- Starts out a bit more northerly than Euro, then shoots up into New England on land, giving Midwest snow.
CMC- Takes NOGAPS solution.
DGEX- Takes NOGAPS solution.
GFS Ensemble- 8/12 predict storm to take NOGAPS solution.

ATTM... This is a hard decision. ECMWF has been leading the pack recently, but GFS has been straying south of the Euro. Will take a ECMWF/NOGAPS solution. Storm looks like a toss-up right now.

EAST COAST MODEL OUPUTS

ECMWF- No storm.
GFS Ensemble- 12/12 going out to sea.
GFS- Likes the Coast Hugger idea storm.
DGEX- Half Inland, Coast-Hugger Storm.
NOGAPS- Nor' Easter occurs.
CMC- Coast-Hugger Storm.

ATTM... Although the ECMWF is a reputable model, it is the only one with that type of solution. In that case... will take the GFS model track.