Saturday, May 21, 2011

Weather Explained: 2011 Hurricane Forecast is very high. Is this a result of global warming?

While the forecast is high due to warmer waters, it is impossible for all that warmth to come from global warming. Maybe a degree higher, but what we are talking about here is a 150%+ of normal hurricanes.
While last year was the 3rd most active (that is a result of global warming), it isn't a direct result.

Something big is going on in the oceans- something bigger than the effect of global warming.
Maybe increased shear or warm waters (likely) we may not know for certain.

All in all, the active season forecast is an indirect result of global warming.

3 comments:

Shannon said...

I love your blog and find it very informative, but I must take issue with the global warming topic.

Natural and cyclical global warming is a true and documented phenomenom, while man made global warming is nothing but a policital tool used by a bunch of socialist believers to control industry and individuals.

With that said, natural and reoccuring global warming ended in 1998 and virtually all climate data points to a trend of cooling since then. A cycle of warming and cooling is natural and has been occuring on all planetary systems, in particular earth, for eons. There is substantial proof that a cooling trend will continue for the next 20-30 years. Please refer to the links below as they are much more explanatory of this phenomenom that I am.

Ice Age Now

ICE CAP



FAQ's and Myths


The weather is also dictacted by things in space that we humans could not even comprehend, let alone control. That big ball of fire in the sky is one of them. It has recently re-awakend from a deep slumber that has not been seen before. The climax of this new maximum is forecasted to be even lower than previously thought, before heading into another deep minimum, possibly Maunder type minimum. Solar activity is a primary driver of many things, including the weather. Ice core samples have actually shown that it was much warmer during the Medieval period, it was warmer that it is now.

Medival Graph

Just saying, the global warming issue should be further researched and everyone should take into account the documented past cyclical climate patterns.

Pace Maker of Ice Ages

Shannon said...

"Something big is going on in the oceans- something bigger than the effect of global warming.
Maybe increased shear or warm waters (likely) we may not know for certain."

Just take all the volcanoes we have on land and then translate that to underwater. The majority of the world's oceans are unexplored, but we already know that underwater volcanoes outnumber the terrestrial ones. With the large uptick in techtonic and volcanic activity over the last 6 years, it makes you wonder if underwater volcanoes are actually heating the ocean more than usual.

The Weather Centre said...

Thank you for your opinion, as it is a discussion that has been open for me as well.
I do believe in the idea that there is a warming and cooling trend over decades for this earth.
However, graphs pointed specifically at CO2 emissions have spiked in recent years.
Over 90% of scientists agree that global warming is a man made thing.

I would like to say that I do believe your alternative causes for the supposed warming are very possible.
But for now, I believe it is safest to agree with the majority of scientists in the world.