A cold front on a strong low pressure will be dragged across the South, potentially igniting severe thunderstorms. This is an overview to accompany that situation.
First, we will start off with the overall threat of severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center issues daily outlooks for severe weather.
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in east Texas into much of Louisiana and Arkansas. Also included in this risk is Southeast Oklahoma.
Below is the percentage risk for severe storms.
The 15% risk covers the slight risk area listed above, with 5% risk in Missouri, Southeast Kansas, more of Texas and Oklahoma, along with Mississippi. West Kentucky and West Tennessee are also in the 5% risk, along with South Illinois.
I do anticipate the cold front to produce severe storms, especially across the 15% range and the Gulf Coast, closest to the open warm, humid air of the Gulf.
Next, we will see the temperature differences forecast to predict how strong these storms could be.
In the above image, it does appear dry, cold Arctic air will be toe to toe against pure warm, humid Gulf air. This definitely is a bad set-up in the way of damaging storms, and will have to be kept a close watch on.
The Weather Centre will continue watching this closely and bring you more updates as they progress.
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