Saturday, March 26, 2011

March 26 Strong Supercell Concern

There is a real concern in the Texas area due to a singular supercell that may turn violent at any moment.
Some indicators of this are the following:
-Craven/Brooks Significant Severe weather indicator are 3 and a half times the amount needed to begin reasonable probabilities for significant severe weather.
-Effective Bulk Wind Shear (what is needed for tornadoes due to winds in different directions) are 2 times the amount minimally needed for probability of supercells.
-CAPE values are 1000 j/kg above what makes the atmosphere considered unstable. Also an indicator of energy in the atmosphere.
-Lifted Index is at -9, while values under -6 are classified as extremely unstable. Severe storms are likely with a lifting mechanism.
-CAPE Downdraft values are off the charts, meaning downdrafts from clouds are likely.

Overall, this is a very intense situation.
Below is real-time radar image of these supercells.

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