Thursday, January 27, 2011

ECMWF changes mind, but other models already pushing north.

The ECMWF has changed its mind for the Midwest/ Ohio Valley storm, but the CMC, NOGAPS models had already latched on to some of that ECMWF pull north.

Current thinking is that the storm will not have a sure track until Sunday or Monday.
However, The Weather Centre will continue to issue graphics to keep you updated.

A forecast discussion will be issued this afternoon.

4 comments:

Shannon said...

Model mayhem as usual. I wish that we would get a big snow storm before Winter is over. We have yet to get a good Great Lakes cutter coming from Texas and then moving northeast into Indiana and then Michigan. I had hope for this storm, but with the ECMWF shifting to the split flow, non-phased look....hope rapidly diminished. There are still a couple of models that have phasing occurring sooner and cut the storm into the Lakes....we shall see. Looking forward to the analysis tonight.

Andrew said...

The 18z GFS didn't do much good, but the DGEX has a north track.
The GEM went ballistic after the ECMWF went north, and they take a very deep storm through the Ohio Valley, providing abundant precip in the West Midwest.

Shannon said...

It looks like the Euro and GFS are now tracking north. By the way, the Z times you have listed in the weather models section are not correct. 12z is actually 6 AM CT and 0Z is 6 PM CT. Sorry, I just wanted to give you the heads up as I am sure it was a typo. Thanks and keep up the great blog!

Andrew said...

Thank you for the correction.

Yes, the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, GEM are all looking good right now.

I'd like it to push a bit north, but right now is fine as is.